From weather to infectious diseases, it has been shown that synergizing results from multiple models gives more reliable projections than any one model alone. In the COVID-19 pandemic this approach has been exemplified by the COVID-19 Forecast Hub, which combines the results of over 30 models (see a report on the first wave of the pandemic). Further, a comparison of the impact of interventions across 17 models has illustrated how any individual model can grossly underestimate uncertainty, while ensemble projections can offer robust projections of COVID-19 the course of the epidemic under different scenarios at a 6-month time scale.
The COVID-19 Forecasting Hub provides useful and accurate short-term forecasts, but there remains a lack of publicly available model projections at 3-6 month time scale. Some single models are available online (e.g., IHME, or Imperial College), but a decade of infectious disease forecasts has demonstrated that projections from a single model are particularly risky. Single model projections are particularly problematic for emerging infections where there is much uncertainty about basic epidemiological parameters (such as the waning of immunity), the transmission process, future policies, the impact of interventions, and how the population may react to the outbreak and associated interventions. There is a need for generating long-term COVID-19 projections combining insights from different models and making them available to decision-makers, public health experts, and the general public. We plan to fill this gap by building a public COVID-19 Scenario Hub to harmonize scenario projections in the United States.
We have specified a set of scenarios and target outcomes to allow alignment of model projections for collective insights. Scenarios have been designed in consultation with academic modeling teams and government agencies (e.g., CDC).
Round 4 results published in May 14, 2021 MMWR:
Borchering RK, Viboud C, Howerton E, et al. Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021; 70:719–724. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7019e3
MIDAS Webinar on COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub presented on April 30, 2021 (available here).